Forex News Trader

A resourceful site for serious spike news traders

Blog

view:  full / summary

Thursday April 24, 2014

Posted by wingstar on April 24, 2014 at 12:40 AM Comments comments (0)

At 4:00 am EDT Germany will release the IFO Business Climate report.  Expected at 110.5 after a prior 110.7,  I will set up on EURUSD with a trigger of 1.5


I have a user request for a new report we have never traded before.  I will post excerpts from the request as it contains some insight on how to trade it and what to expect.  The report is the Turkish Interest Rate decision and it comes in three parts.  1) Benchmark Rate, 2) Overnight lending, 3) Overnight borrowing. The suggested trigger is .50 on all three on USDTRY where an increase sells and a decrease buys.  This will be released at 7:00 am EDT.

 

0.50 can be a good trigger for any of them. it's not big according to the previous change but the market may see it as a trial of a starting trend on rates..

 

"BTW, I must warn that it's a sensitive emerging market and the pair is so sensitive to interest rates and US nfp reports etc. But many brokers may have occasional ask or bid spikes for only one tick even if there is no news.. I trade it with small lot sizes holding a little bit longer than usual, using technical exits, with only large protection SL points. Spread is normal for this volatility, 8pip spread is almost equal to 1.5-2 pip eurusd spread if you think volatility and lot size proportionally"


 (Glenn speaking) I asked why it is not traded with a .25 as we do with all other interest rate releases?..........


"The pair is USDTRY. Actually it was also 0.25 for turkish rates, it's just for extra safety. the pair is currently going up looking like pricing a rate cut already. And the previous change was so extreme, benchmark rate from 4.5 to 10, overnight borrowing rate from 3.5 to 8, and overnight lending from 10 to 12. Those crazy changes came with an extraordinary midnight central bank meeting after very strong usdtry moves because of political risks added to already existing emerging market stress  You can see a 2000 something pip weekly candle for that week, it happened in two days  So we're not sure what's or how much of a rate change has been priced or will be priced just before announcement, so i'll try small lots with manual management..


At 8:30 am EDT the US will release Core Durable Goods.  Expected at .6 after a prior .1,  I will set up on USDJPY with a trigger of 2.5


Andres has provided the following information on the Natural Gas trade at 10:30 am EDT

 

Based on Energy Metro Desk (15 estimates) we have:

 

Previous: +24 Bcf

Expected: We will check it tomorrow.

Range: 52 Bcf

High estimate: +78 Bcf

Low estimate: +26 Bcf

Average: +48.1 Bcf

Median: +45 Bcf

Standard deviation: 13

 

My triggers are +-10. This is an early view from April 21st, i will provide an accurate information tomorrow, if i get it, and i will post it on the chat.


Good Luck Everybody!

 


Wednesday April 23, 2014

Posted by wingstar on April 23, 2014 at 1:20 AM Comments comments (1)

I have a user request as follows:

 

Can you set up your A/C for :

* the French Man. PMI. It's released tomorrow at 7:00AM GMT. The forecast number is 51.9 and the trigger can be +-1.5.

* the german Man PMI. It is released tomorrow at 7:30AM GMT. The forecast number is 53.8 and the trigger can be +-1.5.

 

The reference currency is EURUSD and these trades are playable only if you can have entries without too much slippage.

 

They will be set as requested.


At 8:30 am EDT, Canada will release Core Retail Sales.  Expected at .6 after a prior 1.0,  I will set up on USDCAD with a trigger of 1.0


At 5:00 pm EDT New Zealand will release their Interest Rate Decision.  Expected at 3.0% after a prior 2.75%,  I will set up on NZDUSD with a trigger of .25


Good Luck Everybody!

Tuesday April 22, 2014

Posted by wingstar on April 22, 2014 at 5:55 PM Comments comments (0)

At 9:30 pm EDT Australia will release CPI and Trimmed Mean CPI.  This release has been difficult to trade for two reasons. Fist, the Australian delay is evident as it is in most all Australian releases.  Second, the headline number has the focus, but the Trimmed Mean CPI has been coming in first causing the move to be completed or well underway when the headline comes in.  I feel it is therefore necessary to trade the Trimmed Mean CPI to have any chance to get in before the move is over.  Expected at  .7 after a prior .9,  I will set up on Trimmed Mean CPI with a trigger of .3 on AUDUSD.


Good Luck Everybody!

Thursday April 17th 2014

Posted by wingstar on April 17, 2014 at 4:20 AM Comments comments (0)

At 8:30 am EST Canada will release CPI MoM.  Expected at .3 after a prior .7,  I will set up on USDCAD with a trigger of .3.


Andres has provided the following analysis for the natural gas trade at 10:30 am EST.

 

Analysts see 34 Bcf addition to US Natural Gas inventories. Based on 18 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal we have:

 

Previous: 4 Bcf

Expected: We will check tomorrow.

Range: 22 Bcf

High estimate: 44 Bcf

Low estimate: 22 Bcf

Median: 34 Bcf

EIA estimate: 34 Bcf

 

My triggers are +-10.



Good Luck Everybody!


Wednesday April 16th 2014

Posted by wingstar on April 16, 2014 at 1:20 AM Comments comments (0)

At 4:30 am EDT the UK will release Unemployment claims.  Expected at -30.2 after a prior -34.6,  I will set up on GBPUSD with a trigger of 15K.


At 10:00 am EDT Canada will release their interest rate decisiona and statement.  Expected to hold at 1.0%,  I will set up on USDCAD with a trigger of .25.  There may be some movement based on the statement, but don't count on a change in rate.


Good Luck Everybody!

Tuesday April 15, 2014

Posted by wingstar on April 15, 2014 at 1:40 AM Comments comments (0)

At 4:30 am EDT the UK will release CPI YoY.  Expected at 1.6 after a prior 1.7,  I  will set up on GBPUSD with a trigger of .2

At 5:00 am EDT Germany will release the ZEW report.  Expected at 46.3 after a prior 46.6,  I will set up on EURUSD with a trigger of 8


Not  ready to jump in on US CPI yet as rate increases are more than a year off and QE removal is already underway.


At 6:45 pm EDT New Zealand will release CPI qoq.   Expected at .5 after a prior .1,  I will set up on NZDUSD with a trigger of .3


I believe there may be an opportunity to trade China GDP at 10:00 pm EST yet I have no data to suggest as I have not followed this release over time.  If some of you will forward your suggested trigger and your reasoning to me,  I will get some perspective and will post a consensus for us to trade AUDUSD.  Let me hear from you at wingstarfx@gmail.com  


Good Luck Everybody!


Monday April 14, 2014

Posted by wingstar on April 14, 2014 at 12:45 AM Comments comments (0)

At 8:30 am EDT the US will release Core Retail Sales.  Expected at .5 after a prior .3  I will set up on USDJPY with a trigger of .8


Good Luck Everybody!

Thursday April 10th 2014

Posted by wingstar on April 10, 2014 at 2:20 AM Comments comments (0)

At 7:00 am EDT the UK will release their Interest Rate decision and Asset Purchase Faciity.  We will trade both.  The rate is expected to hold at .50 and we will use a trigger of .25 on GBPUSD.  The APF is expected to remain at 375 billion pounds and we will use a trigger of 25 billion pounds.


Andres has provided the following analysis for the Natural Gas Trade at 10:30 am EDT

 

Analysts expect 13.75 Bcf rise in US Natural Gas inventories. Based on 20 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal we have:

 

Previous: -74 (Bcf)

Expected: We will check it tomorrow.

Range: 17

High estimate: +22 (Bcf)

Low estimate: +5 (Bcf)

Median: +14 (Bcf)

EIA estimate: +13.75 (Bcf)

 

My triggers are +-10.


Wednesday April 9th 2014

Posted by wingstar on April 9, 2014 at 5:20 PM Comments comments (0)

Atl 9:30 pm EDT Australia will release Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.  We will trade the change and monitor the rate.  This will be subject to the "Australian Delay".

Expected at 7K after a prior 47K,  I will set up on AUDUSD with a trigger of 20K.


Good Luck Everybody!

Tuesday April 8th 2014

Posted by wingstar on April 8, 2014 at 1:45 AM Comments comments (0)

I have a user request to set up for UK Manufacturing Production at 4:30 AM EDT.  Expected at .3 after a prior .4, the request is for a trigger of .7 which will be set for GBPUSD.


Good Luck Everybody!


Rss_feed

Advertisements

 photo marketauthority-1_zpsa2d9a98e.gif